712
axpz20 knhc 240923
twdep
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 24 2008
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...Special features...
Tropical Storm Genevieve centered near 15.1n 112.0w...or about
500 nm WSW of Manzanillo Mexico...at 24/0900 UTC moving W at 9
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmep3/wtpz23 knhc
for more details. Convection with Genevieve has weakened from 24
hours ago but has remained steady during the last six hours.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm S
semicircle and 90 nm N semicircle. Upper level outflow is
moderate with easterly shear somewhat restricting the outflow on
the east side of the center. Genevieve is forecast to remain a
tropical storm and reach peak strength of just under hurricane
force Friday then slowly decrease becoming a tropical depression
late in the weekend as it moves over cooler water and
encounters stronger shear.
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave along 83w/84w N of 04n move W 15 kt. Convection is
limited to only scattered moderate near and within 60 nm to the
east of the axis.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is along the line...03n77w to 08n105w to 08n115w to
07n140w. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm
of the following points 08n79w and 02.5n79w and 05n88.5w and
06n92.5w. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is
within the area from 07n to 08.5n from 113w to 117w. Scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
point 12n123w.
...Discussion...
An upper level anticyclone centered over The Four Corners
states extends a ridge axis W over the southern CA to N of the
remnant low from T.D. Fausto. As a result...the 1013 mb remnant
low from Fausto is expected to continue on a mainly W path S of
the ridge axis over the next day. By tomorrow...a mid latitude
trough should begin to eat away at the W edge of this ridge and
allow the remnants of Fausto to take a slightly more N turn.
This same ridge is inhibiting any significant northward progress
for Tropical Storm Genevieve as well.
The upper anticyclonic flow associated with Dolly over south
Texas is producing northeasterly upper flow over the area east
of 110w. Multi level clouds with embedded areas of convection is
within this area east of 100w. Quite dry middle and upper levels
are observed west of 120w with overcast to broken stratocumulus
north of 15n.
Except for the remnant of Fausto a moderate ridge is northwest
of a line from central Baja California to 15n140w. With a weak
high centered north of the area. Elsewhere except for the
tropical cyclone Genevieve the remainder of the area is analyzed
as a weak trough.
$$
Ll
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