548 
abio10 pgtw 241800
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/241800z-251800znov2009//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/240754znov2009//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of
Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 5.0n
91.3e, is now located near 5.4n 92.4e, approximately 170 nm west of
northern tip of Sumatra. Animated infrared satellite imagery
indicates deep convection flaring to the west of a partially
exposed low level circulation center (LLCC). A 24/1354z trmm 37v
microwave image shows weak banding with slight curvature to the
west-northwest of the LLCC. Upper level analysis indicates that the
LLCC is located in an unfavorable region for development south of
the ridge axis with difluent easterly flow. CIMSS low level
vorticity indicates a weak elongated vorticity pattern. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum
sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential
for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the
next 24 hours is upgraded to fair.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 240600z, tropical cyclone 02s (bongani) was located
near 10.9s 51.9e, approximately 560 nm north-northeast of
Antananarivo Madagascar, and had tracked south- southwestward at 11
knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were
estimated at 40 knots gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw
240900) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.