marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 711 PM PDT Tue 8 Jul 2008

Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

At 00z opc puts the 1028 mb nearly stnry high pres W of WA/OR waters with a ridge NE across N WA wtrs. The low pres over srn CA extends trough thru nrn CA and maintains tight pg over the or/CA watrs. Latest qksct pass showed 35 kt peak winds W of or/CA waters. Svrl ship obs with 30 kt winds along the WA/OR waters. Mdls still in good agrmt and on track with fcst and obs and so will not make major changes to current fcst. Prev mim follows...

The 12z models still in agrmt with on track with fcst and obs and so will use GFS. Mdls still keeping the high pres and rdg anchored over the N pac W of WA/OR and N CA waters. A thermal low persists ovr cntrl CA thru Sat with slow wkng trend...apart FM diurnal fluctuations...thru Sat night until it dsipts or shfts E to Great Basin as upr rdg ovr area is replaced by an upr trof off W CST. Upr rdg is strongest this evening and believe the thermal trof and stg high to NW may produce strongest wnds far NE nrn CA offshr wtrs but outside of cstl wtrs due to presence of cstl trof. Will cont with present fcst numbers but lower wnds to 40 kt overnight in area cntrd arnd Pt St George. As an upr low passes N of area thru se AK and nrn BC tonight and Wed h5 heights lower producing some wkng of rdg in pz5 wtrs. Then h5 rdg reblds bhnd it Thu and Fri with high pres bldg into pac NW. This reinforces the gales and perhaps spreads then S into cntrl CA wtrs... indicated by NAM and global mdls other than GFS and ECMWF. Hence stil have low to MDT confdc for late Thu into Sat in NE part of cntrl CA wtrs. Apprs gales are lkly to end by sun as a deep upr low and trof drops se twd area FM glflask and wkns sfc rdg and trof. Conds should remain tranquil in se half of CA wtrs...while to the N conds are lighter due to presence of rdg and do not expect wnds to exceed 25 kt in WA wtrs.

Seas...the 18z obs are in good agreement with ww3 except perhaps in gale area. The ship reporting 28 ft off Cape Mendocino at 18z looks too high. Analyzed for 18 ft in that area. Wil cont to add up to 3 ft to seas in and just S of gale area.

Warnings/forecast confidence...preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale se part tonight into Sat...MDT to high confdc...excp low to MDT Wed night into Sat.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...gale thru Sat. Confdc high. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale late Thu and Fri ovr NE part and contg into Sat with low to MDT confdc. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster musonda/oszajca. Ocean forecast branch.

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