marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 118 am EDT Thu 24 Jul 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Update: 00z run of GFS looks consistent with the 18z run...so am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.

A warm fnt will pass N across the nt1 wtrs tonite. A cold fnt will drift E toward the mid Atlc CST tonite...lift NE over the new eng states Thu...then cont NE across the glf of Maine Thu nite into Fri. Rdg will bld E over the ofshr wtrs Fri into Sat. Another cold fnt will move se and aprch the mid Atlc CST sun...then drift E across the ofshr areas N of the VA CAPES late sun thru Mon.

18z GFS is putting 35 kt and 40 kt bl winds in S to SW flow over the Hudson to balt Cyn wtrs Thu mrng...then moves the bl gales up into the S of new eng wtrs later Thu. 18z GFS also puts a broad area of 30 kt bl winds in SW flow over the balt to hat Cyn wtrs late sun...S of a weak low over the Hudson to balt Cyn area. Blv the GFS is overdoing the wind speeds as noted abv...since the GFS lapse rate product is showing low lvl stability at these times. So will not be fcstg gales during the fcst prd.

Since the Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt thru the fcst prd...so will be favoring the 18z GFS soln with a few minor adjustments.

Seas...wavewatch iii mdl apprs to be somewhat overdone with seas over srn nt1 and nrn nt2 areas for Thu into Thu nite. Otherwise the mdl guidance looks reasonable thru the fcst prd...and will be adhered to fairly closely.

.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...none. .Balt cynyn to Hague line...None. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean forecast branch.

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