Forecast as of 3:45 PM CDT on July 23, 2008 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm-

Synopsis Hazardous marine conditions from Hurricane Dolly are expected today through Thursday. Conditions will rapidly improve Friday through the weekend as Dolly moves away from the area. Mariners should refer to the hurricane local statement for more detailed information regarding the expected effects from Hurricane Dolly.

Forecast as of 3:45 PM CDT on July 23, 2008 Coastal Waters From Port Mansfield To The Rio Grande Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Mansfield Out 20 Nm-
Tornado Watch 735 remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening

Rest Of Today Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 45 to 65 knots with gusts to around 75 knots. Waves 15 to 20 feet. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tonight Hurricane conditions possible. Southeast winds 40 to 50 knots with gusts to around 65 knots diminishing to 30 to 35 knots with gusts to around 50 knots after midnight. Waves 14 to 18 feet. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible with hurricane conditions also possible. Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots in the morning. Waves 14 to 18 feet. Showers in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.

Thursday Night Southeast winds around 20 knots. Waves 9 to 11 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night South winds around 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.

Tornado Watch Statement as of 4:03 PM CDT on July 23, 2008

Tornado Watch 735 remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for the
following locations

CW

. adjacent coastal waters included are

Laguna Madre from the port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado

Laguna Madre from the Arroyo coloardo to 5 nm north of Port
Mansfield TX

Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX

Coastal waters from Port Mansfield TX to the Rio Grande River out
20 nm

Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield TX out 20 nm

Bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas

Bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port O Connor

Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 nm

Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
nm

Matagorda Bay

Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
nm

Hurricane Warning Statement as of 3:23 PM CDT on July 23, 2008

... Hurricane Warning remains in effect...

... New information...

The eye of Dolly... a category 1 hurricane... is near the towns of
Port Mansfield and Arroyo City. Sustained winds near the center
of Dolly have decreased to 95 mph with higher gusts. Dolly is
moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph. The main rain shield from
Dolly covers most of deep south Texas and the offshore waters of
Willacy and Cameron counties.

Hurricane Dolly will continue to produce tropical storm force and
hurricane force winds across the Laguna Madre and the adjacent
Gulf waters. The strongest core of hurricane force winds is
concentrated over the Laguna Madre south of Port Mansfield and out
to 20 nautical miles offshore of Cameron and Willacy counties.
Seas currently range between 20 to 24 feet offshore and will
remain at these heights through the afternoon and evening hours.

... Areas affected...

This statement recommends actions to be taken by persons in...
the Gulf of Mexico and the Laguna Madre.

... Watches/warnings...

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.Gov on the
internet for more information about these additional hazards.

Tornado Watch.

... Storm surge and storm tide...

At this time... the expected surge will range from 6 to 8 feet
near and to the north of the center of Dolly. The expected surge
to the south of the Point of landfall will range from 4 to
6 feet. Tides will continue to run well above normal through
today and into Thursday as surface winds turn back to the west
and southwest.

All residents living on shorelines can expect some water incursion
into their homes. Those in typically flood prone areas may have a
foot or two of water in their homes... causing minor to moderate
damage. Shoreline roads may briefly close with up to two feet of
water across... except those in flood prone areas which could have
upwards of 4 feet of water across them. Moderate to severe beach
erosion is possible... becoming more likely if conditions extend
through multiple high tide cycles.

Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will
increase the likelihood of property damage... especially to structures
on or very near the shoreline near and to the north of the landfall
location.

... Winds...

The center of Hurricane Dolly is crossing the southern Laguna
Madre near the Cameron and Willacy County line this afternoon
and continues to produce tropical storm force and hurricane force
winds across the Laguna Madre and the Lower Texas Gulf waters.
The strongest core of hurricane force winds is concentrated over
the Laguna Madre south of Port Mansfield and out to 20 nautical
miles offshore. Seas range between 20 to 24 feet offshore and will
remain at these height into this evening.

... Probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions...

The probability of tropical storm force winds is near 100 percent
across the Lower Texas Bay and Gulf waters... while the
probability of hurricane force winds is from 50 to 100 percent
across the southern half of the Laguna Madre. The probability of
hurricane force winds for the Gulf waters of Willacy and Cameron
counties will range from 50 to 100 percent.

... Tornadoes...

Isolated waterspouts are a possibility as Dolly moves over the
southern end of the Laguna Madre.

... Next update...

This statement will be updated around 430 PM.

Date	Time	Tide Type	Height
Padre Island (South)
2008-07-23	7:15 AM CDT	High Tide	0.99 feet
2008-07-23	1:45 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.40 feet
2008-07-23	7:46 PM CDT	High Tide	0.80 feet
2008-07-24	1:04 AM CDT	Low Tide	0.53 feet
2008-07-24	6:52 AM CDT	High Tide	0.91 feet
2008-07-24	2:24 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.03 feet
Port Isabel
2008-07-23	7:53 AM CDT	High Tide	0.91 feet
2008-07-23	2:09 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.39 feet
2008-07-23	8:27 PM CDT	High Tide	0.75 feet
2008-07-24	1:41 AM CDT	Low Tide	0.57 feet
2008-07-24	7:36 AM CDT	High Tide	0.90 feet
2008-07-24	2:54 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.11 feet
Matamoros, Tamaulipas
2008-07-23	7:38 AM CDT	High Tide	1.12 feet
2008-07-23	2:06 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.56 feet
2008-07-23	8:16 PM CDT	High Tide	0.98 feet
2008-07-24	1:29 AM CDT	Low Tide	0.72 feet
2008-07-24	7:23 AM CDT	High Tide	1.08 feet
2008-07-24	2:47 PM CDT	Low Tide	0.30 feet

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